My former colleague Mark Hall is predicting IBM's most recent cloud computing initiatives will fail. Mark thinks IBM's first offering, providing Web-based servers for application and test functions, will fail because it won't beat similar offerings from Microsoft and Google on price. He predicts IBM's second service, providing cloud-based "thin clients" (with most of the application processing and data done on a remote server and fed to a rudimentary, low end client device) will fail because "There is something visceral in the minds and hearts of people about having their own PCs."
I would argue there's more than just a "gut feeling" that makes me crave my own "thick client" PC with my very own processor and hard drive with all my own stuff on it. It's experience with Web sites such as LinkedIn and Web apps such as Salesforce.com.
First, the Web isn't always there. For that matter, I can't even get a decent cell phone signal half the time, even in my own house. And I'm going to rely on an Internet connection to see my own work in progress, customer lists and to-do lists? I don't think so.
Second, the Web is too slow -- not for background applications like backup but for anything that requires a crisp response, such as looking up a long-lost customer name in a rush or dashing off a quick email. There's just too much time w-a-i-t-i-n-g for screens to refresh or for drop-down lists to populate. When I'm in crank mode I don't want my computer, or connection, slowing me down.
Third, a lot of Web apps are just too kludgy. True, that's an app dev issue and has nothing to do with the underlying architecture. But have you ever seen a Salesforce.com screen? It's filled with tiny type, multiple identical-looking boxes and odd, run-around-the-block processes for something as simple as attaching a file to an email. And how about those "reply" boxes in LinkedIn, where it takes me about half a minute to figure out where my reply goes?
Finally, remembering passwords to my different cloud apps is just too much for my age-addled brain. On my PC, if I want to launch an app, I click on it -- period. True, configuring my browser to remember all those passwords is fine, except different Web apps and browsers handle this differently, and seem to forget my different user names and passwords just when I need them. Just when I get that all working nicely, a Web app forces me to change my password for my own good. At least my PC trusts me to stay me.
If cloud apps are ever going to take off for the great unwashed like myself, they'll have to 1) reliable, which requires big build-outs of reliable, broadband wireless networks; 2) vcry fast (maybe someone should get going on advanced caching techniques for thin clients and 3) more, not less, user-friendly than their client-based counterparts (which just takes good design.) Finally, give up on the "Web-only" theology and put enough code on the desktop (a la Tweetdeck, the front end for Twitter) so I can just launch it and be on the Web sans sign-on.
Until then, you can have my thick-client PC when you drag my cold, dead, fingers...well, you know the story.
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